jklein07/prediction-market-efficiency

A pre-registered search for exploitable mispricing in prediction markets: what was ruled out, at what statistical power, and four apparent edges that turned out to be sampling artifacts. Write-up and analysis code.

3 best points · 0 comments · 1 Hacker News post · 2 GitHub stars · View on GitHub

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• What I found when I went looking for edge in prediction markets (3 points, 0 comments, by joon11, 2026-08-06)